Ukraine's grain farming in the midst of the conflict with Russia
In 2022 Ukraine's agricultural exports totaled
$28 billion, making up 41% of the country's total exports.
In the midst of the conflict with Russia, how is Ukraine's grain farming being impacted? NASA's Earth Observatory produced this map looking at the location of Ukraine's crops and the areas impacted by the war.
The war has taken a significant toll on the country's infrastructure, particularly in the eastern areas most affected by the conflict, where farming infrastructure has been destroyed.
The exact impact of the war on grain production isn't possible to quantify, as the ability to collect data has been severely limited by the conflict.
Ukraine's agricultural data is organized by Oblasts, which are like states. Here is a map of Ukraine's Oblasts.
This map shows Ukraine's total grain production in 2021 by Oblast before the war started. The more yellow, the more grain production was produced there.
Using our forecasting tool, we can explore different scenarios and how they might impact grain production in Ukraine in the future.
The small impact scenario predicts that grain production will only be effected by about 15% from normal levels in 2022.
The high impact scenario predicts that grain production will be effected by as much as 50% from normal levels in 2022. This results in a deficit of TK million tons of grain, or TK% of Ukraine's total grain production.
Now it's your turn to make your own predictions. Use the sliders and buttons below to simulate different scenarios and see how they might impact grain production in Ukraine in the future.
| Oblast | Harvested Area | Yield | Volume | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| poltava | 598.3 | 67.5 | 40361.2 | |
| chernihiv | 467.9 | 95.2 | 44537.9 | |
| vinnytsya | 423.3 | 100.2 | 42397.6 | |
| sumy | 402.1 | 72.8 | 29270.6 | |
| cherkasy | 362.1 | 90.1 | 32639.1 | |
| kirovohrad | 323.2 | 70 | 22637.8 | |
| kyiv | 320.3 | 95.2 | 30490.4 | |
| dnipropetrovsk | 295.3 | 51.7 | 15277.6 | |
| kharkiv | 281.1 | 52.8 | 14843.3 | |
| khmelnytskiy | 270.6 | 110.7 | 29949.5 | |
| zhytomyr | 250.8 | 92 | 23077.7 | |
| ternopil | 150.5 | 101.7 | 15310.1 | |
| odesa | 131.4 | 62.7 | 8238.7 | |
| mikolayiv | 117.4 | 50.7 | 5954.1 | |
| rivne | 88 | 88.9 | 7824.3 | |
| lviv | 66.7 | 94.4 | 6292.3 | |
| ivano-frankivsk | 66.3 | 84.3 | 5590 | |
| chernivtsi | 60.3 | 74.5 | 4491.3 | |
| kherson | 56.2 | 90.7 | 5097.3 | |
| donetsk | 55.7 | 44.3 | 2473.2 | |
| luhansk | 53.1 | 29.1 | 1547.7 | |
| volyn | 49.1 | 97.8 | 4804.3 | |
| zakarpattya | 46 | 50.6 | 2330.2 | |
| zaporizhzhya | 36.6 | 75.1 | 2757.5 | |
| Total | 4,972 | 1,843 | 398,194 |
Where does Ukraine's grain usually end up? In a normal trade year, the bulk of Ukraine's exports go to African and Southeast Asian countries.
Let's take a look at how the small and high impact scenarios we explored earlier might impact the countries that import Ukraine's grain.
This slider controls the amount of grain that is exported from Ukraine. As less is exported, the countries downstream are affected differently depending on how much they depend on Ukraine's grain.
The small impact scenario predicts that grain production will only be effected by about 15% from normal levels in 2022. This results in a deficit of TK million tons of grain, or TK% of Ukraine's total grain production.
The high impact scenario predicts that grain production will be effected by as much as 50% from normal levels in 2022. This results in a deficit of TK million tons of grain, or TK% of Ukraine's total grain production.
Now it's your turn to make your own predictions. Use the slider below to simulate different scenarios and see how they might impact grain production in Ukraine in the future.